There will come a time in your handicapping of horse races that you will need to evolve and advance your knowledge. One way that you can do this is by learning more about horse racing probabilities. What things tend to happen more than others in horse racing? The answers to this question can help you win more money at your favorite online racebook.
The Mathematics of Horse Racing Betting
Before we begin talking about horse racing probabilities, let’s start by saying we are not talking about difficult mathematics. That is a subject for another discussion. Hard math can be helpful when you are tackling speed figures and what have you, but you don’t have to be a mathematician to understand probabilities.
One of the great things about horse racing betting is that it does not require you to be a college scholar. You can learn a few basic things about the process of handicapping and do quite well. So, put aside any notion that this is going to be a technical discussion.
Horse Racing is a Game of Trends
What we are talking more about when it comes to horse racing is trends. We are looking for things that tend to happen more often than they perhaps should. A smart bettor is able to spot a horse racing trend, make bets with the trend, and win money. We could also term this sort of thing a bias.
The reason that we won’t call it a bias is because that word is usually reserved to refer to a track bias. A track bias is related to track surfaces that favor a certain type of running style. Track biases can be a type of probability, but they also can change. Sometimes they can change from one day to the next. What we are more interested in are long-term trends.
There is an old adage in stock trading that says you should ride the trend until the end my friend. The same is true in horse racing. When you attempt to buck a longstanding trend in horse racing just because you can, you are courting the loss of your bankroll. For whatever reason, some probabilities in horse racing just remain true year after year.
Why Stick With Horse Racing Probabilities?
Let’s use a very simple example here. If you and I were to bet on something and this event had a defined history of producing a certain result, either of us could gain an advantage. All we would need to do is bet on the outcome of the event that happens the most often.
Let’s say we have been observing a weekly race between the tortoise and the hare. The two rivals have been meeting each week for 99 weeks and will race again for the 100th time. In those 99 weeks the hare has won 95 of the 99 races. The tortoise has won 4. Which animal would you like to bet on today?
The answer should be pretty simple. You will bet on the hare or you will bet on the tortoise and receive odds of 95-1. If you cannot make either of these bets then you will take a pass on the event and look for something more exciting to wager on.
The underlying truth is this: what has happened before is likely to happen again. The same is true in thoroughbred horse racing.
The Most Celebrated Probability in Horse Racing
There is one probability in horse racing that holds true year after year. It is the fact that favorites win one out of every three races. That probability has been true for as long as parimutuel horse racing betting has been a thing. It never changes.
What is responsible for this? The knowledge of the betting public. Remember, it is the wagers of the betting public which determine which horse will be a favorite. The public gets it right 33% of the time. That really isn’t a bad percentage when you think about it. If you were able to pick winners at a 33% clip you could become very wealthy as a horse racing bettor.
Yet, despite all the data that proves this probability to be true, some bettors will still bet favorites at less than 3-1 odds all the time. This is a way to lose your bankroll and fail at betting horse races. It just won’t work because the math cannot be beaten.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Curse
Here’s another probability of horse racing. There is always high hopes that the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Each year the Juvenile winner is made an early favorite for the Derby and people cannot wait to bet on this magical unicorn. The thing is, for whatever reason, the Juvenile winner almost never wins the Kentucky Derby. Only two horses have done it in the entire history of the two races.
Once again, we would be willing to wager with you on this event if you want to bet on the Juvenile to win the Derby. We will stand against this horse every time until the trend changes.
Other Examples of Betting Trends
There are so many other examples in horse racing. Horses that did not race at two-years-old do not win the Kentucky Derby, either. It has happened once. If something happens once in 150 tries, which side of the coin do you want to be betting on?
You can begin tracking trends on your local racing circuit. All you need is a notebook and the willingness to invest a little bit of time. The time that you invest could pay handsome rewards when you uncover a trend that few other people have spotted. Maybe a certain trainer wins more often in a certain circumstance. Maybe a jockey loses on a certain day of the week. The possibilities are endless.
Making Money Betting Horses Is Not Easy
We don’t mean to give the impression here that making money betting on horse racing is as simple as following a trend. In general, it is not. You will have to rely on more than horse racing probabilities if you want to make a consistent profit. But we are saying that sometimes you can make an easy bet with little more than the knowledge of a trend.
Trends in horse racing may be able to help you spot the horses that are vulnerable to a defeat. When you are able to avoid these horses you are able to spare your bankroll. Avoiding a loss is as good as a win any day.
Give your new knowledge of horse racing probabilities a try at one of our recommended online racebooks. You can get free bonus cash when you sign up to wager right now, and the betting is available from your phone or tablet.